Decision Making
Lottery Choice Task
Also called: Holt-Laury task, multiple price list, risk preference lotteries, paired lottery choice
Measure attitude to risk with a ten-row price list of safer and riskier lotteries, scored as the number of safe choices.
3-5 minUntimed
Free to start: 10 free participants per account, then $0.99 per participant for academic research, or any yearly plan. Preview any test free after you sign up.
- Papers, 2021 to 2025
- 172
- Evidence grade
- C
- Registered clinical studies
- 6
What it measures
Measures attitude to risk. A list of 10 rows each offers a safer and a riskier lottery for points, with the chance of the higher amount rising row by row; one row is then played. The main score is the number of safe choices.
Constructs
- Risk attitude
- Decision under risk
- Probability weighting
- Economic preferences
Research uses
- Behavioral economics research
- Risk preference in clinical and health studies
- Decision-making across the lifespan
- Within-study group comparison
How the paradigm works
The lottery choice task measures attitude to risk with a multiple price list (Holt and Laury, 2002). One screen lists ten rows, and in each row the participant chooses lottery A or lottery B. Lottery A pays 60 or 45 points and lottery B pays 110 or 5 points. In row n each lottery pays its upper amount n times in 10 and its lower amount otherwise. The amounts were written for this test, not taken from the source, and keep its design: A's amounts are close and B's far apart, and a chooser who maximizes expected points chooses A in the first four rows and B from row 5 on. In row 10, B pays more for sure.
More about the paradigm
The participant clicks or taps a lottery in each row and can change a choice until confirming. Confirm works once every row has a choice, and there is no time limit. One practice question on reading the chances, with feedback, comes first. After the list, one row is drawn at random and the lottery chosen in that row is played for points, as in the source, so every choice can count. The drawn row and the draw come from the session's seed. The study decides what the points are worth, and the payment line says whether they are exchanged for money.
The main score is the number of safe choices: the rows where lottery A was chosen, from 0 to 10. Four is the expected-value choice; more means more risk averse and fewer more risk seeking. The switch row is the first row with lottery B. Switching back from B to A further down the list and choosing A in row 10 are flagged and never exclude, because no single attitude to risk predicts them. In the source, most participants were risk averse, more so when real stakes were scaled up, while scaling up hypothetical stakes did not have that effect (Holt and Laury, 2002). Different ways of measuring risk attitude often disagree (Charness, Gneezy and Imas, 2013), so compare people on the same measure. Scores support research and do not diagnose.
Scores
- Safe Choicescount
- Rows, out of 10, where lottery A was chosen, when all ten rows are answered.
- Higher means more risk averse; 4 is the expected-value choice
- Switch Rowscore
- The first row where lottery B was chosen; empty when B was never chosen.
- Informational
- Switchescount
- Changes between lotteries from one row to the next.
- 1 is a single switching point
- Switching Back0/1
- 1 when the choices go back from lottery B to lottery A further down the list.
- 1 is flagged for review
- Dominated Choice0/1
- 1 when lottery A was chosen in row 10, where lottery B pays more for sure.
- 1 is flagged for review
- Practice Correctflag
- 1 when the practice question was answered correctly, 0 when not.
- 1 supports interpretation
- Decision Timems
- Time from the list's screen to Confirm.
- Informational
- Changed Choicescount
- Times a row's choice was changed before confirming.
- Informational
- Points Wonpoints
- Points from the lottery played in the drawn row.
- Informational
Use and evidence
172 papers from 2021 to 2025 name this task in their title or abstract, down 17% compared with 2016 to 2020. That ranks it 137 of 395 test families in our census. See the counts for every test.
Show the numbers
| Year | Papers |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 32 |
| 2024 | 28 |
| 2023 | 37 |
| 2022 | 45 |
| 2021 | 30 |
| 2020 | 37 |
| 2019 | 43 |
| 2018 | 34 |
| 2017 | 45 |
| 2016 | 47 |
| 2015 | 22 |
| 2014 | 24 |
| 2013 | 25 |
| 2012 | 30 |
| 2011 | 12 |
| 2010 | 16 |
| 2009 | 8 |
| 2008 | 12 |
| 2007 | 6 |
| 2006 | 6 |
| 2005 | 4 |
| 2004 | 1 |
| 2003 | 0 |
| 2002 | 3 |
| 2001 | 0 |
| 2000 | 0 |
Use grade C
100 to 299 papers from 2021 to 2025.
Evidence grade C
At least 2 test-retest papers, 30 reliability or validity papers or 3 registered clinical studies.
- Papers on test-retest reliability
- 3
- Papers on reliability or validity
- 31
- Registered clinical studies using it as an outcome
- 6
How the grades work
Use: A is 1,000 or more papers from 2021 to 2025, B 300 to 999, C 100 to 299, D 30 to 99 and E fewer than 30. Evidence: A means at least 25 papers report its test-retest reliability and at least 25 registered clinical studies use it as an outcome; B, at least 8 test-retest papers, and either 5 registered clinical studies or 150 reliability or validity papers; C, at least 2 test-retest papers, 30 reliability or validity papers or 3 registered clinical studies; D, little published measurement evidence found. The counts measure use. They include every paper that names the task in its title or abstract. Grades describe the published research on this task, not ConductCognition's version of it.
Source: ConductCognition test census 0.14.0, counted 31 October 2026 from OpenAlex and ClinicalTrials.gov.
Task design
The trial sequence as the test runs in ConductCognition.
- List
- 10 rows on one screen. Lottery A pays 60 or 45 points and lottery B pays 110 or 5 points; in row n, each pays its upper amount n times in 10.
- Amounts
- Written for this test: a chooser who maximizes expected points makes 4 safe choices, and lottery B pays more for sure in row 10.
- Choice
- Click or tap a lottery in each row, change any choice, then confirm once every row has one. No time limit.
- Practice
- One question on reading the chances, with feedback.
- Draw
- One row drawn at random from the session's seed; the lottery chosen there is played and its points shown.
- Points
- The study decides what points are worth, and the payment line says whether they are exchanged for money.
- Checks
- Switching back from lottery B to lottery A and choosing A in row 10 are flagged and never exclude.
Holt and Laury (2002) paid dollar amounts and also ran the list at 20, 50 and 90 times the stakes. This test runs one list on its own amounts in points. A participant who switches more than once has no single switch row, so compare people on the number of safe choices. The scores support research and do not diagnose.
Quality checks
Each session is marked valid, needs review or invalid, with the reason, before you see its scores.
Scored rows: the scored run's list, one choice of lottery A or B in each of its 10 rows. A list with any row unanswered is invalid. No choice is correct, so accuracy is not judged against chance, and choosing one lottery throughout does not invalidate. Switching from B back to A further down the list, choosing A in row 10 (where B pays more for sure) and a wrong practice answer are flagged for review and never exclude.
Why these rules
There is no correct option to compare with chance, so accuracy is not judged against chance. The number of safe choices is a count over all 10 rows, so it has no defined value with fewer. A single attitude to risk gives at most one switch from A to B, and B in the last row. Switching back or taking the dominated lottery is usually read as confusion, but such a pattern can still be a real preference, so these checks flag and never exclude.
No percentile. Scores and quality flags only.
Running this test
Settings you can change
| Setting | Standard | Allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Payment line | Hypothetical points (standard) | Hypothetical points (standard), The study pays for points |
Yearly plans can change settings within these limits. Free and pay-as-you-go studies use the standard settings.
Need a setting this test does not have?
Devices and languages
- Untimed test: runs on desktops, laptops, tablets and phones. Participant devices
- Languages: English, Spanish, French, German, Italian, Portuguese (Brazil), Chinese (Simplified) and Japanese.
- Available on: Every plan, including the free plan.
- No percentile. Scores and quality flags only. How norms work
- Recruiting online? See the setup guides for Prolific, Sona Systems, CloudResearch Connect and Qualtrics.
Cite and describe
Participants completed the Lottery Choice Task in a web browser (ConductCognition task version 1.0.0, scoring version 1.0.0; Holt CA, Laury SK, 2002), with the standard settings (payment line: Hypothetical points). The main score was safe choices (rows, out of 10, where lottery A was chosen, when all ten rows are answered).
ConductCognition versions: task version 1.0.0, scoring version 1.0.0. Every export records the versions each session used, for a methods section.
- Holt, C. A., & Laury, S. K. (2002). Risk aversion and incentive effects. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1644-1655. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024700
- Charness, G., Gneezy, U., & Imas, A. (2013). Experimental methods: Eliciting risk preferences. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 87, 43-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2012.12.023How price lists compare with other ways of measuring risk attitude.
Source papers
- Holt and Laury (2002): the price list and how risk aversion changes with real and hypothetical stakes. Charness, Gneezy and Imas (2013): methods for eliciting risk preferences.Paradigm source, Adults
Questions
How long does the Lottery Choice Task take?
About 3 to 5 minutes, as listed in the test library.
What device does a participant need?
Untimed test: runs on desktops, laptops, tablets and phones. The browser must be Chrome, Edge, Firefox or Safari.
What scores does it produce?
Safe Choices, Switch Row, Switches, Switching Back, Dominated Choice, Practice Correct, Decision Time, Changed Choices and Points Won. Each session is also marked valid, needs review or invalid, with the reason.
How widely is the Lottery Choice Task used in research?
172 papers from 2021 to 2025 name it in their title or abstract, down 17% compared with 2016 to 2020. That ranks it 137 of 395 test families in the ConductCognition test census (use grade C). Source: ConductCognition test census 0.14.0, counted 31 October 2026 from OpenAlex and ClinicalTrials.gov.
How much reliability evidence does the Lottery Choice Task have?
In the published research, 3 papers report its test-retest reliability and 6 registered clinical studies use it as an outcome (evidence grade C in the ConductCognition test census).
Does it report a percentile?
No. Scores and quality flags only.
Which settings can a researcher change?
Payment line (Hypothetical points (standard), The study pays for points). Settings can be changed on yearly plans; free and pay-as-you-go studies use the standard settings.
Which languages can participants use?
Participants can take this test in English, Spanish, French, German, Italian, Portuguese (Brazil), Chinese (Simplified) and Japanese. English is on every plan, and the other languages come with yearly plans. Have a native speaker read the machine-translated text before launch.
Is this a clinical test?
No. ConductCognition is for research use only. It runs, scores and exports the test; clinical interpretation is outside the platform.
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